A new peer-reviewed study takes a fresh approach to a question the wine trade has been asking with growing urgency: as the climate shifts, where will European viticulture actually be viable in the decades ahead?
Rather than relying solely on temperature projections, the researchers use what is known as a climate analogues method — essentially identifying present-day locations whose climate resembles what a given vineyard region is expected to experience in future. Crucially, they’ve adapted this approach specifically for viticulture, factoring in bioclimatic indices tied to vine growth and disease pressure, correcting for the fine-grained topography that shapes individual vineyard sites, and accounting for overlap between different climate indicators.
The findings point to two distinct forces reshaping the map of European wine. Temperature-linked indices, tied to how vines grow, are driving shifts north and south, as well as to higher elevations — the familiar story of warmer regions pushing viticulture toward cooler ground. But indices linked to disease risk, driven by humidity and precipitation, are causing a different kind of movement: notable shifts from east to west.
Perhaps the most striking implication concerns northern Europe. By the end of this century, parts of the region could become thermally suitable for grape-growing for the first time. Yet that same window of opportunity comes with a catch: rising humidity in these areas could intensify disease pressure, potentially undermining the long-term viability of vineyards planted there.
For an industry already grappling with early harvests, shifting appellations, and mounting pressure on traditional growing regions, this research offers a more nuanced picture than temperature maps alone — one where suitability isn’t just about warmth, but about the delicate balance between growing conditions and disease risk.
Source: Science Direct